Pardon me while I name-drop. We had the chance to talk with Rob Pardo some at DICE and GDC, and from a couple of anecdotes I'm going to make a sweeping generalization - a reason Blizzard outclasses us is because the sorts of problems that I'm tempted to just make excuses about they actually solve. The example from DICE was a discussion about ladder systems: my feeling used to be "Use ELO" - like the true skill from Halo matches. Rob Pardo doesn't think ELO is fun. Which is the point where I start making excuses: "It's good enough for chess, for Halo, it works, it matches you with someone at your level."
But he's got a point - ELO has a number of issues:
It's fun to watch your ranking go up at first, until you hit a plateau, at which point the game can lose interest unless you're one of those "love the plateau" people. Again, I feel the urge to make an excuse: At least it's fun at first! It least it gives you motivation to keep playing for a while!
And whoever is the best doesn't want to play again, particularly if the game has some variance. All that can happen is their score goes down.
(I've been playing
Spectromancer a lot lately - I suck - but one thing they do notice on the system is that good players create new accounts for themselves so they can smurf - and have the fun of climbing the ladder again.)
I'm not going to tell you how Blizzard plans on solving these issues for Starcraft 2 - that may have been confidential.
One thing that isn't confidential, which was in Kaplan's WoW talk, is "progressive percentages." It's something they use on the drops during a quest in WoW - if drops were purely random, you'd end up with a couple of problems:
First of all, people are pathologically bad at recognizing true randomness. When you give someone a list of truly randomly generated numbers or coin flips, they'll see the streaks and often say, "That's not random!" (How many times have you heard somebody say that about their mp3 player or CD changer? Problem with random shuffles is often that they actually *are* truly random! (Though I once had a CD changer in my car that I was so sure wasn't random that I took the trouble to write down every disc & track it played for a while and did a chi-square (well, I asked Mark Nau do the chi-square) and was vindicated - it really did favor a couple of tracks much more than the other tracks, statistically significantly.))
Second, some people, some of your players, will get screwed by randomness. They'll get bad streaks. 1 out of 32 of your players are going to flip the coin five times and come up with "no drop" every time.
And they'll come to the programmer and say "Your random number generator is broken." (Apparently in the early days there were a lot of these sorts of reports on the Blizzard forums.) And here's where I make my excuse: when someone comes to me and tells me my random number generator is broken I say, "No it isn't, you're just suffering from the all too human tendency to not be able to recognize truly random numbers."
But it doesn't matter if it's broken or not, all that matters is it *seems* broken. And the guys at Blizzard fix it. They don't want to lose that 5% of players who happened to get enough of a bad streak that they decided to quit playing. But they want to keep some of the feeling of randomness in there. So - progressive percentages.
Which work like this: say you want an approximately 50% drop rate. Instead of it being 50% every time, you make it something like 33% the first time, and if they miss, you make it 50% the next time, and if they miss, you make it 66% the next time, etcetera. When saving the game from bad streaks you need to be careful you don't kill the good streaks as well.
Not technically random at all! But cool, huh? Blizzard doesn't even let the nature of random numbers mess up their games. I tell you, next time I find myself saying to some playtester, "Yes, I understand you think there's a problem, but there really isn't, and here's why..." I'm going to have to give myself a good kick.
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