I would have bet that the Fantastic Four wasn't going to touch Batman Begins, even though it seemed like they were dropping a lot more marketing dollars on it: lately I have the feeling that "I can't get away from" Fantastic Four, but I never really felt that way about Batman during its marketing push.
My reasoning was simply Google numbers. A couple years ago I googled the various superheroes to see who had the big mindshare - Superman was the clear winner, followed by Batman, followed by Spider-Man, and then the various other Marvel guys were fighting over scraps. The Fantastic Four was down at the bottom of the pile.
Now, Batman is at an insane 11M Google hits and FF has just edged out Spider-Man at 4M. Meanwhile...Superman himself is still hanging out at 3.7M...man, he used to be a contender...
So it looks like marketing overpowers mindshare. Or maybe the Google metric just isn't that useful. Or maybe there's something I'm not thinking of?